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Tag: Unemployment

According to President Biden, Everyone is Doing Better Economically

bidennomics

President Joe Biden is on the campaign trail today. He wants prospective voters to know that EVERYONE is doing better economically thanks to Bidenomics. As I write this post, I am watching MSNBC. Both Chris Hayes and Alex Wagner want voters to understand that they are doing well economically, even if it doesn’t “feel” like it. According to Hayes, Wagner, and a host of Biden apologists, the numbers don’t lie: unemployment is down, wages are up, and inflation declining. In their minds, these macro numbers prove that Biden’s economic policies work. Americans are better off, even if they don’t feel they are.

Here’s the problem with this kind of thinking: Americans live in a micro world, not a macro one. The macro numbers parroted by Biden and his defenders do not represent what is actually taking place on the ground in what MSNBC often derisively calls “flyover land” — the Midwest — you know where all those MAGA people live. Biden touts new jobs, yet fails to explain how total employment is static. No one bothers to question how accurate unemployment numbers are. Only people who are drawing unemployment are counted as unemployed. People no longer or unable to seek employment are not counted. Nary a word is said about what percentage of American jobs pay a living wage. Nothing is said about those who are working part-time jobs because they can’t find well-paying full-time jobs. The same can be said for the inflation rate. This rate is always quoted in insolation of what has taken place in the past. Rarely, do Americans recover purchasing power lost. Wage increases never seem to outstrip inflation.

Here’s what I know. In the past two years, our utility bills, insurance, and groceries have all done up — often dramatically. Our medical costs are a runaway freight train. Housing costs are up. Interest rates are up. Real estate taxes are up. Entertainment costs are up. (But, Bruce, gas prices are down! Yea, Team Biden, right?) These expenses have, for the most part, outstripped inflation. Wages are flat, unable to keep up with rising prices. If an employer raises wages 3% every year, it will take workers more than five years to regain the purchasing power lost in 2021-2022 alone. All is NOT well for Midwestern working-class people. Biden and defenders telling us that it is “all in our heads” does not reflect how life really is for us. And until Biden understands this and changes his tune, he can expect to continue to alienate voters. Biden, along with his cheerleaders at MSNBC need to personally come to the Midwest and actually talk to working-class people. To quote Fox Mulder, “the truth is out there.”

Of course, Biden will ignore people like me, as will Chris Hayes, Joy Reid, and Alex Wagner. I just don’t understand “economics.” I am just an uneducated country bumpkin. Maybe, but here’s what I know: my wife and I have less discretionary income than we had two years ago, our expenses are outstripping inflation, our wages are in decline (when adjusted for inflation), our debt is increasing, and medical costs are out of control. Worse, my wife’s employer laid off workers and she has been on a reduced schedule since October. The promised raise never materialized, and when one does eventually materialize it will likely be 25-40 cents. In the meantime, the company raised insurance premiums, stopped 401K contributions, and is hanging on for dear life. So much for the awesomeness of Biden’s economy.

But, Bruce, the macro numbers say _________________. Sorry, but we live in a micro world — a world where bank balances matter, not labor statistics. And if Biden can’t or won’t understand this, he shouldn’t be surprised when he loses the 2024 presidential election. Unlike the talking heads at MSNBC, I actually have my finger on the pulse of Midwestern workers. They are my spouse, children, grandchildren, friends, and neighbors. I understand their questions and fears. I listen to them talk while in line at the grocery, sitting in stands for a basketball game, or having dinner at a local restaurant. I hear their worries and concerns. One thing is clear, Biden and the Democrats are clueless about what Midwestern people think, and what it is that drives their fears. (And Republicans are no better.)

Bruce Gerencser, 66, lives in rural Northwest Ohio with his wife of 45 years. He and his wife have six grown children and thirteen grandchildren. Bruce pastored Evangelical churches for twenty-five years in Ohio, Texas, and Michigan. Bruce left the ministry in 2005, and in 2008 he left Christianity. Bruce is now a humanist and an atheist.

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Bruce’s Ten Hot Takes for July 19, 2023

hot takes

Israel is an apartheid state.

The war in Ukraine is a proxy war between the United States/NATO and Russia.

We must have an honest, science-based discussion about transgender women athletes.

Institutional racism is very much part of America’s social, political, and economic DNA.

Anyone who votes for Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis is promoting fascism and religious extremism.

A yes vote on Ohio Issue 1 on August 8, 2023, is an attempt to subvert democracy and majority rule.

The Democratic Party is clueless about how rural people live or what is important to rural Americans.

The Biden administration’s job numbers don’t tell the truth about employment, unemployment, and underemployment in the United States.

The pissing war between the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) and the International Committee of the Fourth International (World Socialists) harms the socialist movement as a whole.

Electric vehicles, LED lighting, and recycling will do very little, if anything, to meaningfully combat global climate change.

Bonus: Americans will not do anything unless you make them.

Leave your hot thoughts in the comment section.

Bruce Gerencser, 66, lives in rural Northwest Ohio with his wife of 45 years. He and his wife have six grown children and thirteen grandchildren. Bruce pastored Evangelical churches for twenty-five years in Ohio, Texas, and Michigan. Bruce left the ministry in 2005, and in 2008 he left Christianity. Bruce is now a humanist and an atheist.

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Quote of the Day: How Good Was the Federal February 2022 Employment Report

job numbers

By Frank Stricker, Democratic Socialists of America

The Labor Department’s Employment Situation report for February included pretty good numbers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that job totals for the month of February were up significantly from the previous month—up 678,000 for non-farm businesses and government organizations The official unemployment rate dropped two-tenths of a percent to 3.8%. These numbers suggest that January’s fairly good job totals were not a freak of seasonal adjustments. Also, it is clear that the unemployment rate did not fall as a result of more people dropping out of the labor force. The labor force grew by 304,000, employment increased substantially and the ranks of the unemployed dropped by 243,000.

By Sector–Some Recoveries, Some Far From It

            The employment situation was a mixed bag. Restaurants and other leisure and hospitality businesses gained 179,000 positions. Open Table reported that reservations had surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Yet there were 824,000 fewer restaurant jobs than in February 2020. It is a plus that pay in leisure and hospitality jobs rose 14% in one pandemic year. But that brings it to just $17.12 an hour, the lowest average wage of any sector.

  The endangered retail sector regained enough jobs to surpass pre-pandemic levels. That is hard to believe. Health care employment is 306,000 jobs below its February 2020 level, and local government jobs, including education workers, are 598,000 jobs below the February 2020 level.

 Negatives also apply to other sections of the jobs report. As the National Jobs for All Network’s (NJFAN) Full Count shows, Black unemployment was, as usual, two times the white unemployment rate. Fuller employment with good jobs would help here but won’t solve the problem. Racism–institutional, structural, and personal–is deeply rooted, so Black unemployment is always much higher than white. And the official Black rate underestimates the problem. Hundreds of thousands of African Americans are in prison or have prison records—a red flag to employers. Many unemployed Black workers can’t find a reason to look for work. Only an all-out package of solutions will bring Black unemployment levels down to white rates.

 The government undercounts unemployed African Americans, and it undercounts total unemployment. Millions of job-wanters aren’t considered unemployed. While the official number of unemployed was 6.3 million, 4.1 million part-timers could not find full-time work, and 5.4 million people wanted a job but had not recently searched for one–at least not in ways the BLS accepts. When these groups are added to the total, NJFAN found that the number of unemployed in February was 15.8 million, not 6.3 million: The real unemployment rate was 9.3%—not the official 3.8%. Perhaps labor demand was not as high as employers claim. Effective demand would include more good jobs.

Nothing New: Too Many Lousy Jobs

 Wage levels are one index of job quality. We have heard a lot about worker shortages and employers lifting pay to attract people. It’s true that the dollar amounts an average employee sees in her pay packet have increased. But so has inflation. For most workers, after-inflation pay has not grown steadily during the pandemic. From January 2020 through January 2021, real hourly pay advanced 4%. From January 2021 through January 2022, real hourly pay fell 1.3%. There was a net gain in real pay, but not by much, especially if we widen our lens for a minute. The history of real pay is a dreadful tale. How much did the purchasing power of hourly pay increase from 1972 through February 2022?  The answer: 4%. That’s the total increase in the purchasing power of an hour of work for an average employee over half a century.

 Even prior to the pandemic, employers normally had an adequate supply of labor. And that is despite the fact that the U.S. has relatively low labor force participation rates (people working or looking for work). The aging of the population plays a role here. But more oldsters would work if compensation and conditions were better. And even if we focus on prime working ages (25-54), we find that the participating share of the population fell from 85% to 81% between 2000 and 2015. (It rose again and is currently at 82.2%.)

Some prime-age people are not participating due to sickness, disability, and child care issues. Many are staying out because there aren’t enough jobs with livable wages, good benefits, and supportive bosses. Conservatives like to think the reason is that government benefits are too rich for the working class (but never rich enough for the super-rich). But benefits can be very low. For example, if you have a long-term illness or disability and you receive a monthly disability benefit of $1200, you won’t be getting more than you’d earn working 30 hours a week in a low-wage state for $10 an hour. Why not raise pay instead of cutting benefits?

We do not precisely know what labor markets will look like if COVID becomes less consequential. We can expect that more people who are rejecting lousy jobs will have to go back to work. Fewer people will quit their jobs, and the number of job vacancies will fall at a rate of millions a month from their historic highs. Without a union surge, without higher minimum wages, without federal good-job programs, and without truly affirmative action, the lousy job situation will continue.  More people will be back at miserable jobs. We hope more will be organizing for collective action at the workplace. Some already are.

I am a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. Want to join your fellow comrades as they work towards a better tomorrow? Join here.

Bruce Gerencser, 66, lives in rural Northwest Ohio with his wife of 45 years. He and his wife have six grown children and thirteen grandchildren. Bruce pastored Evangelical churches for twenty-five years in Ohio, Texas, and Michigan. Bruce left the ministry in 2005, and in 2008 he left Christianity. Bruce is now a humanist and an atheist.

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How the Coronavirus has Affected Us

coronavirus
Cartoon by Phil Hands

Everyone has a Coronavirus Pandemic story to tell. I hope you and yours are surviving and doing what you can to maintain your sanity during this time of unprecedented social and economic upheaval. I do think about the readers of this blog. I worry about their health, finances, and families. I wonder if I am focusing too much on the pandemic, and not enough of positive, happy stories. I don’t want to further depress people or add to their stress levels, yet I suspect that most readers want me to continue to open, honest, and matter of fact. In other words, my house might be on fire and my wheelchair is out for repairs, but I am going to do what I can to maintain some sort of normalcy.

A number of readers have asked how things are going for me and my family. I appreciate everyone’s kind, thoughtful comments, and emails. Rather than send out form letters or take on the laborious task of responding individually, I thought I would answer the various inquiries I have received in this post. After this, I won’t mention our personal plight until things change for us in a significant way. All of us have our own burdens to bear right now, so there’s no need for me to endlessly talk about my own.

First, let me mention Polly. She was scheduled to have bowel reconnection surgery at the end of March. That surgery has been postponed until at least the end of June. Which is fine. Polly can get along okay as she is, colostomy bag and all. Not what she wanted, but she understands why her surgery had to be canceled.

Polly was laid off from her job — a first in our marriage. Initially, her employer thought it would be a brief furlough; now the talk is that her layoff may last into late April or early May. On Monday, Polly tried to file for Ohio unemployment online. The state’s website crashed during the process, leaving her application incomplete. This has led to an infuriating comedy of errors. The bottom line is this: Polly has to call the Ohio Jobs and Family Services to “fix” her application. Much like resisting assimilation into the Borg, reaching someone at the state office has proven futile. We call four to six times a day, without success. Please try again later. 

Second, our children are either working from home, on drastically reduced hours, or laid off. We are quite close, so it has been difficult to not see most of them. Our youngest daughter has stopped by several times with here munchkins, and our oldest son briefly stopped in two days ago with his oldest daughter. We stayed in the back yard for the duration. To say that we miss our children and grandchildren would be a gross understatement.

Third, we had been saving money to cover Polly’s month off work for her surgery. We are now repurposing that money to pay our current living expenses. This, of course, will lead to difficulties for us when Polly does have her surgery in late June. We have enough money on hand to pay all our living expenses for two months. By then, we should receive the stimulus check and somebody, anybody, will pick up the damn phone at the unemployment office, allowing Polly to successfully complete her unemployment application.

Six weeks ago, we bought a new car. Awesome, wonderful car. However, it’s not a good time to be purchasing a new car. We can’t unring the proverbial bell, so all we know to do is move forward. I made the first payment yesterday. We will worry about the next one when it’s due.

Fourth, food-wise we are in good shape. We always have three to four weeks of food on hand, so we didn’t need to make a run to the store lest we run out. We have gone to the grocery twice in the past three weeks. We are good to go, even if we may not necessarily have everything we want. Growing up poor and spending much of our married life on the bottom of the economic scale, taught us how to make do. We are survivors. Polly is a wizard when it comes to making groceries stretch. 

Fifth, our biggest concern is what will happen insurance-wise if Polly’s layoff continues long-term. Right now, her employer is paying all the premium costs; however, I suspect there will come a time when they will no longer be able to do so. The company she works for employs 2,000 people, but they are a private, family-owned business. Their ability to absorb long-term financial losses is limited. The company was already under financial stress before the pandemic, so I do worry about their future. The owners are wonderful people. I know they will do everything they can to keep the business running and their employees working.

Finally, my health pretty much remains the same. Chronic pain and debility are ever with me. As most readers know, I have a massive cyst between my breast and shoulder. I have had this cyst drained twice over the past four months. Unfortunately, it keeps coming back and will continue to grow until it is drained again. It really needs to be drained now, but the risk is just too great. I don’t plan on going anywhere near a hospital unless it is an emergency. Not draining the cyst has several risks. First, as it grows, it presses on nerves in my shoulder, cutting off feeling to my arm. Second, the cyst could hinder blood flow in a nearby artery. This, the radiologist told me, could cause a stroke. So many decisions. For now, I do nothing. 

Stay safe, friends. 

Bruce

Bruce Gerencser, 66, lives in rural Northwest Ohio with his wife of 45 years. He and his wife have six grown children and thirteen grandchildren. Bruce pastored Evangelical churches for twenty-five years in Ohio, Texas, and Michigan. Bruce left the ministry in 2005, and in 2008 he left Christianity. Bruce is now a humanist and an atheist.

Connect with me on social media:

Your comments are welcome and appreciated. All first-time comments are moderated. Please read the commenting rules before commenting.

You can email Bruce via the Contact Form.

Bruce Gerencser